Donald Trump Inches Closer to Kamala Harris in Minnestoa, New Poll Shows

Former President Donald Trump has narrowed the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris in Minnesota, with a new poll showing him just 3 percentage points behind in a state that hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate in over half a century.

The latest MinnPost-Embold Research poll released on Monday reveals Harris, the Democratic nominee, leading Trump, the GOP nominee, by 48 to 45 percent, a slight shift from September when Harris led Trump 49 to 44 percent, which narrowed to 49 percent to 45 percent when including those leaning toward a candidate.

The October poll surveyed 1,734 likely Minnesota voters between October 16 and 22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The September poll, conducted between September 4 and 8, surveyed 1,616 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

With both results falling within the polls’ margins of error—the race for Minnesota’s electoral votes appears to be a statistical dead heat.

Newsweek has contacted Trump and Harris’ campaign via email on Monday for comment.

The narrowing margins reflect broader changes since 2020 when President Joe Biden carried Minnesota by 7 percentage points. That margin had already significantly contracted from previous Democratic presidential victories, following former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s razor-thin win of less than 2 percentage points over Trump in 2016.

One reason for the static nature of the current race? Very few undecided voters remain this late in the campaign cycle. The October poll found just 2 percent of respondents were undecided, down from 3 percent in September. Meanwhile, 5 percent of those surveyed said they plan to vote for someone other than Harris or Trump.

The poll reveals significant shifts in independent voter preferences, a crucial demographic that could determine the final outcome.

In September, Trump led among independents with 40 percent support compared to Harris’ 23 percent. The October poll shows the former president maintaining his advantage with independents but by a smaller margin, 36 percent to Harris’ 27 percent, with 24 percent preferring other candidates.

Geographic divisions remain stark across Minnesota, highlighting the state’s deepening urban-rural divide. In Minneapolis and St. Paul, Harris maintains overwhelming support, leading 69 percent to 20 percent in October, a slight decrease from September when she led 73 percent to 21 percent in these urban areas. The seven-county metro area excluding Minneapolis and St. Paul remains highly competitive, with the vice president holding a narrow 48 percent to 45 percent lead in October.

In Greater Minnesota, Trump shows dominant support. Earlier polling from September 2023 showed Biden trailing Trump by 20 points in the region. The October numbers reveal Trump expanding this advantage, now leading Harris 64 to 31 percent in Greater Minnesota.

The gender divide in the presidential race has emerged as a defining feature of the contest. The latest survey showed Harris leading by 13 percentage points among women, while Trump holds a 12-point advantage with men. These divisions appear to be driven by differing policy priorities: 42 percent of women cited abortion as a top concern compared to 26 percent of men, while 69 percent of men listed inflation as a primary issue versus 53 percent of women.

Early voting patterns could prove crucial to the final outcome. Among the 19 percent of respondents who reported having already voted in October, Harris holds a commanding lead, capturing 70 percent of early ballots compared to Trump’s 27 percent.

According to the Minnesota secretary of state’s office, 565,909 Minnesotans had cast their ballots as of October 24, approximately half the number of early votes cast at this point in 2020, when pandemic concerns drove unprecedented mail-in voting.

The tightening race in Minnesota aligns with other recent polling trends. A KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA poll in August showed Harris with a five-point lead over Trump, down from a 10-point lead in July.

A June poll by the Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE showed Biden and Trump in a statistical dead heat, with 15 percent of those surveyed saying they were either undecided or supporting a candidate other than Trump or Biden.

Despite Minnesota’s long streak of supporting Democratic presidential candidates—the state has not elected a Republican to the White House since Richard Nixon’s victory in 1972—recent elections suggest this traditional blue wall may be showing cracks.

Harris, meanwhile, picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to be her running mate in August after accepting the party’s nomination following Biden stepping down and endorsing her to be his successor.