Montana Senate Update: Jon Tester Raises $32M in Likely Tipping Point

Montana Senator Jon Tester raised more than $32 million for his reelection bid in the third quarter of 2024, as polls show a tight race in what could be the most consequential Senate election of this cycle.

Tester, a Democrat first elected in 2006, is facing a challenge for his seat from Republican businessman Tim Sheehy. The outcome could determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the U.S. Senate come January.

Montana, traditionally a Republican-leaning state, is expected to easily back former President Donald Trump in the presidential race, meaning Tester will need to run ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris to prevail in the Senate race.

Recent polls suggest Sheehy may have a narrow advantage, but the race remains close.

A new filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) shows that Tester raised $32 million from July through September. Meanwhile, a filing from the Sheehy campaign showed that Sheehy raised $9.7 million in the same period.

Tester has held a financial advantage over Sheehy throughout the campaign, but recent polls call into question whether that will be enough to carry him to victory, given the state’s partisan lean.

Tester’s campaign manager Shelbi Dantic said in a press release provided to Newsweek the donations show that “Montanans are sending a clear message that they are ready to run through the tape to send Jon Tester back to the U.S. Senate.”

“We are so grateful that Jon has overwhelming grassroots support from Montanans in every corner of the state, and we will channel this unprecedented momentum through election day to make sure Jon Tester can continue to defend Montana,” Dantic said.

Newsweek reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters from October 5 to October 8 showed Sheehy with an 8-point lead over Tester (52 percent to 44 percent). The margin of error was plus or minus four points.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute poll conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent). The poll’s margin of error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Sheehy leading Tester by 5.4 points as of Tuesday. Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics’ latest average, last updated on October 8, showed Sheehy up seven points.

Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

Democrats’ heavy investment in the race reflects its importance in holding their majority. To retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November, they must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere.

Montana is considered a potential tipping point for Senate control, and Ohio, another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state, is viewed as a possible GOP flip.

The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

Tester was last up for reelection in 2018, when he won by less than four percentage points. Two years later, Trump won the state by more than 16 points. This sort of ticket-splitting has become rare in recent years amid heightened political polarization.