RFK Jr. ‘Changes the Narrative’ for Donald Trump: Political Strategist

In an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish on Saturday morning, Republican strategist Alex Castellanos said Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit from the presidential race “changes the narrative” for Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.

On Friday evening, Kennedy Jr., an independent presidential candidate, announced he had made the “heart-wrenching decision” to “suspend” his 2024 White House bid and urged his supporters in battleground states to vote for Trump over Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris. However, in solidly red or blue states, Kennedy Jr. said his backers should still vote for him, claiming he would then have a chance to become president “in a contingent election.”

A survey of 1,867 likely U.S. voters conducted by Outward Intelligence between August 18 and 22 and published on Thursday found that if Kennedy Jr. did drop out of the race, 59 percent of his voters would lean towards backing Trump against 41 percent for Harris. Overall, the poll gave Harris a six-point lead over Trump, with 50 percent of the vote against 44 percent, and had a margin of error of 2.3 percent.

Separately, an analysis of recent polling by election website RacetotheWH found that the exclusion of third-party candidates, of whom Kennedy Jr. is by far the highest polling, would flip North Carolina and Nevada, key swing states, from being a Harris win to one for Trump.

“It’s impactful [for Trump] not just because of numbers and math but because of the narrative that drives the story in the campaign. First of all, Trump’s an outsider, guess who else is? RFK. That makes Kamala Harris, I think, a little more of the old insider, which is what she’s trying to get away from and trying to reinvent herself not to be,” Castellanos, founder of the communications firm, Purple Strategies, said on Saturday.

Later in the interview, which also included Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and senior editor for The Atlantic, Castellanos said, “What he [Kennedy Jr.] does is he changes the narrative for Trump. There’s a youthful optimistic factor to that brand and I wouldn’t discount that.”

Newsweek emailed the Trump, Kennedy and Harris campaigns for comment Saturday morning.

Kennedy Jr., son of 1968 Democratic presidential candidate Senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of Democratic President John F. Kennedy, has gained attention in recent years for his skepticism toward COVID-19 vaccinations. He also stirred controversy on several occasions while on the campaign trail. Earlier this month, Kennedy Jr. admitted to dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park in Manhattan 10 years earlier, saying that he and his friends who assisted thought the act was “amusing.”

Allegations also spread this summer that Kennedy Jr. had previously eaten a dog, which was first reported by Vanity Fair, although his campaign later dispelled the rumors. That same article included information on Kennedy Jr. being accused of sexually assaulting his former babysitter, a claim that Kennedy did not deny during a podcast appearance.

Castellanos said that Kennedy’s name-recognition, alone, will be a boost for the former president.

“There’s something even better for Trump, the ‘K’ in RFK…the Kennedy brand and mystique. It still represents a bit of ‘Camelot’ and promise of what could be, the promise that was interrupted and what many Americans hope it can be again,” Castellanos said. “Trump has run out of script a little bit. How does he freshen it? How does he appeal to new voters? He’s reached out to Elon [Musk] and young Black men, but this gives him a new way to expand his story. Trump is not a math campaign guy. He’s not disciplined. He’s all about driving entertainment to drive a narrative and create a story and this gives him something new to say.”

On Saturday, Brownstein scoffed at Kennedy Jr.’s appeal and ability to swing the election for Trump, highlighting potential issues and concerns among suburban voters in battleground states.

“Donald Trump is wrapping himself further in fringe views that will further alienate the white-collar suburbs that are Harris’ best chance of winning,” he said. “And that showed in 2022 [midterm elections], despite broad economic discontent, that they were able to take the states, in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, that are going to tip the election.”

While polling has shown that Kennedy Jr.’s supporters are likely to lean toward Trump’s campaign with the independent out of the race, Scott Jennings, former adviser to President George W. Bush, said Friday night on CNN that Kennedy Jr.’s reputation could “cost” Trump’s chances with some voters come November.

“Look for whatever benefit you get…there could be some cost on the other side of the algebra,” Jennings said during an appearance on The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.

“I mean, I’m old enough to remember when RFK was a liberal conspiracy theorist,” Jennings continued. “Now he’s more of a conservative conspiracy theorist, but the through line is he’s a conspiracy theorist, and a lot of people think he’s kind of a loony tune. So, I would just caution the former president be a little careful here,” he added. “Don’t make any promises you can’t get out of.”