Sleeper Box Office Hit or Franchise in Decline?

The final box office fate of Paramount/Hasbro’s animated film “Transformers One” was never going to be written on opening weekend. But after a soft $25 million domestic start, now it’s up in the air whether this origin tale for Optimus Prime and Megatron will strike a chord with moviegoers who aren’t already fans of the ’80s franchise.

Hitting theaters a year after the solid theatrical run of Paramount’s “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem,” “Transformers One” is part of a broader effort by the studio to build its name among families and general audiences alike as a major player in the theatrical animation space.

The Melrose studio, which earned a respectable $844 million in North America in 2023 but saw its theatrical revenues plummet 40% last quarter to $138 million amid strike-related delays that pushed “Mission: Impossible 8” to 2025, is using top IP like “Avatar: The Last Airbender” and “SpongeBob SquarePants” to build a robust new wing of its motion picture group heading into a new era under the ownership of Skydance Media.

“Transformers One” is a key part of that, as the studio seeks to transition the “more than meets the eye” robots from the live-action/CGI tentpole franchise it has been on the big screen since 2007 to a more cost-conscious series that reflects the IP’s animated roots. An origin story set entirely on the Autobots’ home planet of Cybertron was seen as a perfect way to manager that pivot — a film done in the visual style first designed by Michael Bay and his team would have been a budgetary nightmare, especially as Bay’s final entry in the franchise, 2017’s “Transformers: The Last Night,” ballooned to a budget 0f $260 million which hindered the profit potential of its $604 million worldwide gross.

Instead, “Transformers One” carries a $75 million budget shared between Paramount, Hasbro Entertainment, and New Republic Pictures, putting the break-even point at a low level for all financiers involved. Insiders at Paramount told TheWrap on Sunday that they’re still confident they’ll clear that mark, as “Transformers One,” which opened to a $39 million global box office, still has 60% of its overseas markets yet to release; it is expecting strong numbers for a franchise that has always performed well internationally.

Paramount will also receive royalties from Hasbro for any toys and merch based on the film, a downstream revenue source that has made “Transformers” lucrative for decades beyond the box office.

“Transformers One” also has the advantage of strong word-of-mouth, carrying an A on CinemaScore and 5/5 from general audiences on PostTrak along with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 89% critics and 98% audience. That’s a far cry from the Bayhem “Transformers,” which in their late 2000s/early 2010s heyday were the prime definition of “critic-proof” blockbusters.

For all of these advantages, the lower-than-expected opening could be a warning sign that not enough moviegoers outside the already converted are interested in an animated “Transformers” film and may end up being more intrigued by Universal/DreamWorks’ “The Wild Robot,” which hits theaters next weekend.

Here’s a break down of the best and worst-case scenarios for the film.

Best Case: Audience buzz wins out

In the best-case scenario, non-“Transformers” fans catch wind from the converted that “Transformers One” is the best film ever from the franchise, containing emotional depth and visual spectacle beyond what is seen in the film’s trailer and marketing.

Among fans and critics alike, praise has been particularly heaped upon Brian Tyree Henry as D-16, the miner robot whose rage at uncovering a conspiracy that reaches the highest levels of Cybertron leads him down a dark road to becoming the villainous Megatron.

The slow death of D-16’s friendship with fellow miner Orion Pax — the future Optimus Prime — has been praised by some critics as one depicted with enough tragic weight that it can resonate with anyone regardless of their previous “Transformers” experience. The film’s third act also has the action that fans expect, but is presented in a colorful new animation style that will allow it to stand apart from the equally distinct but tonally different “The Wild Robot.” Indeed, “Toy Story 4” director Josh Cooley’s style is a far cry from Bay’s.

Making the leap from fans to general audiences is never a guarantee, but if “Transformers One” can do it, it could be set up to leg out alongside “The Wild Robot” given the lack of major family friendly fare in October. Paramount has already found a leggy theatrical hit with its original summer family film “IF,” which turned a $33.7 million opening into a $111 million domestic run. With even stronger opening weekend reception scores, “Transformers One” has the fuel to do the same.

Worst Case: A PG “Furiosa”

In the worst-case scenario, the rave reception for “Transformers One” from early moviegoers falls on deaf ears, as fewer casual moviegoers than anticipated are interested in buying a ticket to see where Optimus and Megatron came from — even if the movie is good.

This would be a similar trajectory to one of the big misfires of this summer, Warner Bros.’ “Mad Max: Fury Road” prequel “Furiosa.” Despite strong reviews from critics and rave reception from fans of George Miller’s post-apocalyptic series, “Furiosa” was a flop, generating just $67.4 million in domestic grosses and $172.7 million worldwide — less than half of the $380 million global total the Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron-led “Fury Road” earned in 2015.

Comparisons between “Transformers One” and “Furiosa” aren’t exact — the R-rated “Furiosa” is far more gritty and violent — but the danger for Paramount’s film is that like “Furiosa,” the core premise of “Transformers One” isn’t a strong enough selling point for non-fans regardless of the film’s quality.

With Anya Taylor-Joy taking Theron’s place as Furiosa and with Hardy’s Max Rockatansky completely absent from the film save for a faceless easter-egg cameo, box office returns for “Furiosa” fell off a cliff after the cult fanbase for “Mad Max” had bought their tickets. General audiences, meanwhile, opted for June releases like “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” and “Inside Out 2.”

If the buzz for “Transformers One” can’t get casuals off the fence, that makes “The Wild Robot” much more of a threat. Based on Peter Brown’s bestselling YA novels and directed by Chris Sanders of “Lilo and Stitch” fame, “The Wild Robot” tells the tale of a utilitarian robot named Roz that, after being stranded in the wild, becomes the unexpected caretaker of an orphaned gosling named Brightbill. It currently carries a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score and Universal has high awards season hopes.

Critics have praised the DreamWorks film not only for its beautiful animation style but for its moving depiction of parenthood. It provides a level of relatability that likely will be a more effective selling point for a wider audience than even the name recognition of Optimus Prime, whose action figures have been bought up by generations of boys for the past 40 years.

The ideal scenario for Paramount, Universal and theaters alike is that there’s enough differences in the narratives of “Transformers One” and “The Wild Robot” that they are both able to thrive off their glowing receptions without cannibalizing each other at the box office.

According to demographic data provided to TheWrap, families only accounted for 36% of the opening weekend audience for “Transformers One,” meaning that adults who are longtime fans of the series were the core group turning out while “The Wild Robot” is tracking better with families, according to exhibitor sources.

If “Transformers One” legs out primarily with general audiences while “The Wild Robot” plays more to kids and parents, that might be the balance that would allow theaters to get the most turnout out of both films, allowing for the theatrical market’s newfound momentum in the second half of 2024 to continue into October.

But even the most popular of franchises can decline in popularity as audiences decide they’ve gotten their fill of certain stories and characters and aren’t interested in more. If that proves to be the case for “Transformers,” even with this new animated film winning over critics as well as fans, Paramount may need to look to another franchise to rely on as its top-animated moneymaker.