Three Swing States Have Shifted to Donald Trump in Past Week—Nate Silver Model

Donald Trump has made gains in three swing states in the past week, according to a major election forecaster.

Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast shows that the former president has made marginal gains in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina in the past week—three states in which he has the lead—while Harris had made gains in two other swing states.

Trump’s largest gain was in North Carolina, which is currently the closest state in the election, where he has gained 0.4 points. He is now polling at 48.7 points to Harris’ 48 points.

The former president has also increased his vote share in Arizona and Georgia, where he has gained just 0.1 point in each state. However, he has a larger lead of 0.9 points in Georgia and 1.4 points in Arizona.

Meanwhile, Harris has made marginal gains in Pennsylvania, which is most likely to be the tipping point state in the election, and Nevada, of 0.1 points and 0.2 points respectively, while neither candidate has gained in Michigan or Wisconsin.

Although Harris’ gains have been small, Silver’s model shows that she is leading Trump by 1.2 points in Pennsylvania, 1.7 points in Michigan, 1.9 points in Wisconsin and 1.9 points in Nevada.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the toss-up states this year to win, while Trump would need 51. If Harris were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd district, she would have enough votes to secure victory.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows she is set to win Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which would get her over the line. Harris is leading by between 1 and 2 points in all four states, according to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s poll trackers. However, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows Harris’ lead has been cut in every swing state since September, other than Nevada, where it has increased, and North Carolina, where polls have remained largely stable.

Meanwhile, both trackers show that Trump leads by between 1 and 2 points in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.

But while Harris may be winning the popular vote in four swing states, as well as the national popular vote, the Electoral College is still a toss up, according to Silver.

“Following her debate with Trump, Harris expanded her national lead from roughly 2 points to 3 points, and it’s remained there pretty much ever since. That extra point is useful on the margin since it might be just enough to help Harris overcome the Electoral College bias—but the race remains a toss-up for all intents and purposes,” he wrote in his newsletter on Monday.

FiveThirtyEight’s model currently shows Harris is predicted to win the popular vote and the Electoral College with 279 votes to Trump’s 259.

The Economist‘s forecast shows that Harris is predicted to win 273 electoral votes to Trump’s 265, while Silver’s forecast put Harris on 281 electoral votes to Trump’s 256.