Who Will Win the US Election? Final Forecasts, Polls on Election Day
Polls and forecasts show a close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump as voters head to the polls on Election Day.
Both candidates on Monday made their final pitches to voters in the swing states that are set to decide an election that will be historic whichever candidate prevails.
Harris would be the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to be elected president if she defeats Trump. If Trump wins, he would be first incoming president to have been indicted and convicted of a felony, as well as the second president in history to win non-consecutive White House terms.
Harris spent Monday campaigning in Pennsylvania—its 19 electoral votes make it the largest prize among the battleground states that are set to determine the winner of the Electoral College. Trump held rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before ending his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday night.
Here, Newsweek rounds up what the latest polls and forecasts say about their chances of winning the White House.
Photo Illustration by Newsweek/Getty Images
POLLS
New York Times/Siena College
The final New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 election cycle showed Harris with marginal leads in the battleground states of Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump is ahead in Arizona, while they are locked in close races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The poll surveyed 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from October 24 to November 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
ABC News/Ipsos
Harris was narrowly leading Trump—49 percent to 46 percent—in the final ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.
The poll surveyed 2,267 likely voters between October 29 and November 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
TIPP Insights
Trump had a very narrow lead—49 percent to Harris’ 48 percent—in a TIPP Insights poll released on Sunday.
The poll surveyed 1,305 likely voters between October 31 and November, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. TIPP Insights was rated the most accurate pollster by The Washington Post in 2020.
Emerson College Polling
The final Emerson College Polling survey tied Trump and Harris with 49 percent each.
The survey was conducted between October 30 and November 2 among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
FORECASTS
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model predicts a close contest between Trump and Harris.
Trump wins 53 times out of 100, while Harris wins 46 times out of 100 as of Sunday, according to FiveThirtyEight’s simulations of the election.
The model, as of November 2, predicts that Trump will secure 275 votes in the Electoral College, while Harris will receive 268.
Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s forecast, updated on Sunday, gives Trump a 54 percent chance of winning the election and Harris 46 percent. The projection predicts Trump will secure 277 Electoral College votes, while Harris will get 261.
“Trump remains a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up,” says an analysis by Decision Desk HQ on October 28. “Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 235 and Harris at 226.”
Real Clear Polling
Real Clear Polling’s “no toss-up” map predicts Trump will triumph in the Electoral College, with 287 votes to Trump to Harris’ 251.
The model predicts Trump will crack the “blue wall” and carry battleground Pennsylvania as well as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Harris is predicted to carry Michigan and Wisconsin.
Silver Bulletin
Statistician Nate Silver’s model also favors Trump winning the Electoral College.
The former president has a 52.6 percent of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has a 47 percent chance, according to a Substack post on Monday. However, it finds Harris is likelier to win the popular vote—with a 74.2 percent chance compared to 25.8 percent for Trump.
The model gives Trump a higher chance of carrying Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and Harris a higher chance of winning Michigan and Wisconsin.
The Economist
The Economist’s forecast model, updated on Monday, predicts Harris and Trump have equal chances of winning the election. Both are projected to win 50 in 100 times.
